World man-made fibre production grew even faster in 2004 than in 2003.
Output was up by 8.9% to 34.6 mn tons following a 5.2% rise in 2003.
The 2004 increase reflected strong growth in China and lesser growth in
India. Synthetics accounted for most of the growth, especially polyester,
although cellulosics were up by a healthy 8.8%.
Output of natural fibres rose by a remarkable 21.7%-more than four
times the 4.9% increase registered in 2003. As a result, and unusually,
the share of natural fibres increased from 40.4% to 43.1%. The rise in
natural fibre production was driven by a staggering 23.2% increase in
cotton output-following a 4.6% rise in 2003-as growers were
encouraged by higher prices. But the wool clip continued to fall.
The cotton price fell from a high of 76.80 cents/lb in November 2003 to
51.28 cents/lb in February 2005, reflecting fears of high stocks. Although
demand in the 2004/05 season is up by 6.5%, mostly due to higher usage
in China and South Asia, output is up by 22.0% to a record 25.2 mn
tons, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).
But lower prices have deterred plantings and output will fall by 9.3% in
2005/06. The cotton price will average 57 cents/lb in 2005/06, 10 cents/lb
more than in 2004/05, according to the ICAC but the EIU says that such
a figure will not be reached until the end of 2006.
Competition from man-made fibres and concerns over stocks, including
those in the textile pipeline, have also kept down wool prices. Currently,
global demand for wool fibre is being sustained largely by consumption
in China. Elsewhere, consumption is being depressed by the restructuring
of the textile industries in industrialised countries. The outlook is for only
a modest rise in prices. Although stocks are expected to fall slightly,
supply and demand will be more or less in balance in 2005/06. | 
